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Ukraine: Deal No Longer Needed

Updated: Sep 11


Ukraine has undergone significant geopolitical transformations in recent years, reshaping its position on the global stage. This paper explores how successful military operations, altering power dynamics between Russia and Ukraine, have rendered a grain deal obsolete and unfavorable for Ukraine. Additionally, we analyze the implications of this shift on Ukraine's maritime strategy and international trade.

The Grain Deal as a Symbol

The grain deal was a proposal to export grain from Ukraine through Turkey. The deal was seen as a way to alleviate the global food crisis, but it was also seen as a way to legitimize Russia's blockade of Ukrainian ports. Both Russia and Ukraine have since abandoned the grain deal, signaling their determination to stand their ground against each other.

The Changing Geopolitical Landscape

The war in Ukraine has had a significant impact on the country's geopolitical landscape. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports has prevented the export of grain, and the conflict has damaged Ukraine's infrastructure. However, Ukraine has also made significant gains in the war, and its military capabilities have improved.

The Changing Geopolitical Landscape
  • Successful military operations: Recent military successes have demonstrated a remarkable shift in the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine. These victories have not only boosted Ukraine's confidence but have also reshaped the geopolitical dynamics in the region.

  • Abandoning the grain deal: Ukraine's newfound military capabilities have rendered the grain deal unnecessary and unprofitable. It symbolizes Ukraine's determination to stand its ground against Russian interference.

The Grain Deal as a Symbol
  • Acknowledging Russian blockades: The existence of the grain deal implicitly acknowledges Russia's blockade of Ukrainian ports. It highlights the challenges Ukraine has faced in securing its maritime access.

  • Demonstrating resilience: Ukraine's successful transfer of weapons and their strategic utilization have changed the narrative. Four ships have sailed from Ukrainian ports to the Bosporus without any agreements with Russia, showcasing Ukraine's evolving maritime capabilities.

Reimagining Maritime Power
  • Ukraine rewriting maritime history: The changed balance of power enables Ukraine to reshape its maritime strategy. Ukrainian ports can now potentially be opened, allowing Ukraine to engage in global trade on its terms.

  • Diverse vessel ownership: Ukraine's careful consideration of ship ownership plays a crucial role. Most of the ships that left Ukrainian ports belong to international banks and major countries, making them less susceptible to Russian attacks.

A Path Forward
  • Leveraging partnerships: In the current situation, Ukraine must strategically select ships from reputable international companies to enter Ukrainian ports. This approach will facilitate the restoration of free navigation and enhance Ukraine's economic prospects.


Ukraine's successful military operations have marked a turning point in its geopolitical standing, making the grain deal redundant. As Ukraine continues to assert its independence and maritime capabilities, it should leverage international partnerships to further its economic interests and strengthen its position in the global arena. The evolving geopolitical landscape underscores Ukraine's determination to chart its destiny and engage with the world on its own terms.

The evolving geopolitical landscape in Ukraine is complex and constantly changing. However, one thing is clear: Ukraine is no longer a passive player in its own destiny. The country is determined to chart its own course and engage with the world on its own terms.

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