Libya at a Crossroads: UN Leadership, Russian Aggression, and the Search for Stability

The security situation in Libya has escalated following a Russian missile strike on the United Nations compound in Tripoli, highlighting the fragility of the conflict and the urgent need for decisive international action.

The UN Mission in Libya: Leadership Crisis

The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) continues to mediate between political factions and facilitate dialogue. Following the resignation of Abdoulaye Bathily in April 2024, the position of Special Representative remained vacant until Hanna Serwaa Tetteh assumed the role in February 2025. Tetteh has since restored leadership to the mission, advancing a comprehensive political roadmap aimed at unifying institutions, preparing for credible elections, and launching a structured national dialogue within Libya.

However, her roadmap has faced sharp criticism from the Libyan community, which has accused it of lacking clarity and being detached from the country’s complex realities. Her appointment has also faced skepticism from parts of the population and political elites, who question the UN’s ability to manage a crisis that has persisted for over a decade.

Until the major geopolitical powers take a clear and decisive stance on Libya and actively engage in resolving its crisis, lasting stability in the country will remain out of reach.” - Dr. Oleksander Havryshuk, Professor of International Humanitarian Law

Why Libya Matters Libya’s instability has far-reaching implications. With some of Africa’s largest proven oil and gas reserves, Libya is a strategic partner for global energy markets, including American companies. A stable Libya would ensure reliable energy supplies, economic opportunities, and secure Mediterranean trade routes. Additionally, Libya remains a frontline state in managing migration flows, countering terrorism, and limiting foreign influence, particularly from Russia, whose paramilitary and military activities continue to undermine stability.

The Failure of Current Approaches Despite initiatives like the Berlin Process, the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, and the UN electoral roadmap, Libya has not progressed toward unification or sustainable governance. Divisions between rival governments in the East and West persist, militias and foreign mercenaries remain entrenched, and corruption continues to erode public trust in state institutions. The recent attack on UNSMIL following on a Russian missilestrike underscores that without stronger action, both Libyans and the international community will continue to bear the consequences of a frozen conflict.

Paths toward a solution.

The following steps are essential to break the deadlock:

1. Rapid Appointment of a Strong SRSG: The UN Secretary-General must nominate a Special Representative with the credibility, neutrality, and political weight to re-engage Libyan factions.

2. Greater U.S. Leadership: The United States should recognize Libya’s strategic value and tie its engagement to national interests in energy security, counterterrorism, and containing Russian influence.

3. Inclusive Political Dialogue: Beyond political elites, Libyan civil society, youth organizations, women’s groups, and business communities must be integrated into peace talks to ensure legitimacy and long-term buy-in.

4. Accountability for Spoilers: International mechanisms, including sanctions, should target actors who obstruct reconciliation and profit from instability.

5. Protection of International Personnel: The attack on UNSMIL necessitates a comprehensive review of security measures for international missions in Libya and coordinated condemnation of Russia’s actions.

Conclusion Libya stands at a critical juncture. Without renewed leadership and robust international engagement, the country risks deeper instability, with consequences for the Mediterranean region, global energy markets, and U.S. interests. The United Nations must act decisively, and the United States, alongside its allies, should lead efforts to build peace and stability. West Support remains committed to working with Libyan leaders, business communities, and international partners to foster dialogue and promote sustainable peace.

P.S. West Support has proposed to both Libyan sides and the United Nations the creation of a new platform for dialogue, uniting politicians, business circles, and civil society. We believe this inclusive format offers Libya a real chance for stability and restored trust between parties.

V. Shumakov PhD

Head of the expert group

on economic issues of the region