Libya’s Fragile Calm and Washington’s New Experiment in Family Diplomacy

Tripoli — The last time an American warship pulled into a Libyan port, Lyndon Johnson was president. When the USS Mount Whitney made a symbolic stop this April, it was more than a photo opportunity: it signaled Washington’s quiet reentry into a country that has spent more than a decade on the margins of U.S. foreign policy.

At the center of this return is an unlikely figure: Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-Nigerian businessman, father-in-law to Tiffany Trump, and, since April, President Donald Trump’s senior advisor for Africa and the Middle East. His appointment was greeted in Washington with raised eyebrows — critics dismissed him as a political in-law with no diplomatic experience. Yet within three months, Boulos had brokered a “Washington Agreement” between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo and traveled across North Africa, meeting leaders from Tripoli to Cairo.

Now, Libya has become his most ambitious stage.

A Country at Stalemate

Libya today is neither at war nor at peace. The Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli clings to the west, while General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) controls the east. A 2020 cease-fire still holds, but state institutions remain paralyzed. Armed groups continue to profit from smuggling and patronage, while Russia, Turkey, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates all vie for influence.

Yet a fragile equilibrium has emerged. Oil production — the backbone of Libya’s economy — has rebounded to roughly 1.4 million barrels per day, the highest in over a decade, and the National Oil Corporation is aiming for two million. Migration flows across the Mediterranean remain deadly, but the central route through Libya is now central to Europe’s political debates on asylum and border security.

This uneasy calm creates both opportunity and risk. Without a political settlement, Libya’s wealth could once again become fuel for civil war. But with careful diplomacy, the country could reemerge as a linchpin of Mediterranean stability.

America Returns

The United States has oscillated between engagement and neglect in Libya since the killing of Ambassador Chris Stevens in Benghazi in 2012. The Biden administration crafted a ten-year stabilization plan under the Global Fragility Act and signaled intent to reopen the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli. The Trump administration, in its first months, has chosen a different tack: pairing symbolic shows of presence — the Navy ship visit — with family-driven diplomacy, embodied by Boulos.

In July, Boulos sat down with both Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh in Tripoli and leaders in Benghazi. He also toured Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt, signaling that Libya cannot be solved in isolation. For interlocutors in the region, his greatest asset is not bureaucratic rank but access. In societies accustomed to family envoys and personal emissaries, Boulos’s ties to the president are read as shorthand for authority.

The Stakes for Washington

Libya is not just about Libya.

• Energy Markets: With Europe scrambling to diversify away from Russian oil and gas, Libyan production represents an underused safety valve.

• Migration: Every overloaded dinghy leaving the Libyan coast reverberates in Rome, Paris, and Berlin. European leaders are desperate for U.S. involvement in stabilizing departures.

• Great-Power Competition: Russia has entrenched itself in eastern Libya through the rebranded Africa Corps, inheriting Wagner’s networks. Moscow is building long-term logistics on NATO’s southern flank.

For Washington, Libya is both a test case and a warning: act now, or watch Russia and others cement their positions.

What the U.S. Should Do Next

Boulos has opened doors. But doors, once opened, slam shut if no one walks through them. To convert fragile openings into lasting policy, the Trump administration will need both his personal connections and the steady hand of career diplomats and military officers. Four steps stand out:

1. Send an Ambassador, Not Just Envoys.

   For three years, the U.S. has operated out of Tunis with a chargé d’affaires. Nothing signals commitment like reopening the embassy in Tripoli with a Senate-confirmed ambassador.

2. Speak Clearly and Publicly.

   Washington’s goals remain fuzzy. A short, declarative Libya strategy — support for the cease-fire, energy development tied to human rights, counterterrorism, and migration management — would reassure Libyans, rally allies, and deter adversaries.

3. Invest in Security Cooperation.

   U.S. defense and intelligence agencies can provide targeted support to GNU and LNA units alike, focused on counterterrorism, border control, and maritime rescue. Done carefully, this could build capacity while reducing Russia’s leverage.

4. Broker Oil Deals With Standards.

   Libya’s economic potential is immense. By leveraging U.S. companies and initiatives like the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights, Washington can help ensure that new oil wealth does not fuel conflict but instead rebuilds Libya’s social contract.

   
   

A Family Envoy, a National Test

The paradox of Massad Boulos is that his greatest liability in Washington — his family ties — is his strongest asset abroad. In the Middle East and North Africa, power often flows through personal trust more than institutional protocol. His ability to deliver agreements, like the Rwanda–DRC deal, shows that unconventional envoys can sometimes break through.

But charisma and connections cannot sustain policy alone. Libya’s challenges — fractured institutions, foreign meddling, fragile cease-fires — require the machinery of statecraft: embassies, aid agencies, defense partnerships, and private investment underpinned by clear rules.

Whether the Trump administration can marry Boulos’s personal diplomacy with the institutional weight of the U.S. government will determine if Libya’s fragile calm hardens into peace — or shatters into another round of chaos.

V. Shumakov PhD

Head of the expert group

on economic issues of the region