Libya: A Geopolitical Battleground and a Collapsed State

Following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011, Libya has become a battleground for foreign interests. Numerous states—ranging from regional players to global powers—have actively pursued their own agendas, backing various armed factions and rival governments.

External factors such as Turkey, Russia, the UAE, France, Italy, the United States, and others have sought access to Libya’s natural resources, strategic influence in the Mediterranean, control over migration flows, or broader geopolitical leverage.

As a result, Libya has lost control over its territory and its future. Once among the African countries with the highest GDP per capita—exceeding $12,000 USD—Libya has now plunged into chaos, with GDP per capita declining to $4,000–6,000 USD. A population that previously enjoyed free education, healthcare, and housing programs is now struggling to survive.

Foreign interference, the support of conflicting factions, and economic exploitation have led to extreme poverty and the disintegration of state institutions. Libya stands today as a grim example of how foreign interests—often cloaked in rhetoric about “democracy” or “stability”—can result in catastrophic outcomes for a nation’s people.

A Divided Country

Since 2014, Libya has been effectively split between two rival administrations.

• In the west, the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU), headquartered in Tripoli, is supported by the UN and several Western and regional powers.

• In the east, the Government of National Stability (GNS) operates from Benghazi and is backed by influential armed groups, notably the so-called Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar, with military and political support from Russia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates.

This division not only hinders governance but also deepens the chaos, fueling fierce competition for power, resources, oil revenues, and international recognition. Instead of rebuilding its state institutions after the 2011 uprising, Libya has become trapped in a prolonged conflict, driven by foreign meddling and internal power struggles.

The Need for National Elections: A Path to Legitimacy and Peace

One of the core reasons for Libya’s chronic instability is the absence of a nationally elected, legitimate leader. Since 2011, the country has not held nationwide presidential elections. Power has shifted between interim governments, technocratic administrations, or groups reliant on military force.

The two parallel administrations—GNU in Tripoli and GNS in Benghazi—continuously undermine each other, lacking a shared national mandate. This situation leads to:

• public distrust in the political process,

• state fragmentation,

• competition over resources,

• and ongoing foreign interference.

Why Presidential Elections Are Crucial

1. Restoring Legitimacy

Only free and transparent nationwide elections, conducted under international supervision, can grant a new leader a legitimate mandate from all Libyans, regardless of region, ethnicity, or tribal affiliation. This is essential to rebuild national unity.

2. Unifying State Institutions

An elected president could act as a neutral arbiter, initiating the reunification of armed forces, reform of the public administration, and restoration of centralized governance.

3. Reducing Foreign Influence

A strong and legitimate government would be better positioned to resist external interference, which currently thrives on Libya’s institutional vacuum.

4. Reviving the Economy

Elections would boost confidence among investors, donors, and international organizations, paving the way to rebuild:

• infrastructure,

• the oil and gas sector,

• public services,

• and the banking system.

5. Reducing Violence and Conflict

Elections must be preceded by demilitarization and a shift from war to politics. A leader elected by the majority would be in a stronger position to launch a national dialogue that includes all regions and stakeholders.

The basis of our political systems is the right of the people to make and to alter their constitutions of government. - George Washington

Obstacles to Elections

• Disagreements between rival governments over election laws, candidate eligibility, and the powers of a future president

• Reluctance by de facto leaders to relinquish power

• The presence of armed groups capable of disrupting the electoral process

• Influence of foreign actors seeking to manipulate the outcome for strategic gain

Conclusion

National presidential elections are not a technical formality—they are a historic opportunity. Libya must make a decisive choice for peace, stability, and sovereignty. Without democratic legitimacy, the country will remain a proxy battlefield for external agendas. Only the voice of the Libyan people can lay the foundation for a unified and sovereign state.

West Support Signs Cooperation Agreement with The Arab Organization for Human Rights in Libya 

Given the protracted crisis in Libya, which has persisted for more than a decade, West Support reaffirms its commitment to the principles of peace, stability, and the protection of human rights. We believe that real, lasting change is only possible through active civil society engagement, international cooperation, and independent on-the-ground monitoring.

In line with this commitment, West Support has signed a memorandum of cooperation with the reputable Libyan NGO — The Arab Organization for Human Rights in Libya (AOHRL).

For years, AOHRL has played a vital role in the protection of human rights in Libya, including:

• monitoring abuses committed by both state and non-state actors,

• defending political prisoners and individuals held without due process,

• supporting migrants, refugees, and victims of human trafficking—groups especially vulnerable in conflict zones,

• and publicly documenting war crimes and violations of international humanitarian law.

The partnership between West Support and AOHRL aims to:

• strengthen field-based monitoring in critical areas across Libya,

• develop joint analytical reports and submissions to international bodies (e.g., the UN, EU, African Union),

• build the capacity of local human rights defenders through training, knowledge exchange, and resource-sharing,

• and promote public dialogue on the importance of national elections, reconciliation, and transitional justice.

This memorandum marks not just a formal agreement, but a practical partnership in the service of Libyan people and their fundamental rights. Together, West Support and AOHRL will work to ensure that Libya's transition is rooted in accountability, dignity, and the democratic aspirations of its people.

Volodymyr Shumakov PhD

Head of the expert group

on economic issues of the region