In September 2023, the United States made its move on the "grain corridor" issue, proposing that Turkey become the guarantor of this issue in the Black Sea region. This step is part of the United States' global strategy to address the food crisis caused by Russia's aggression in Ukraine.
The U.S. proposal includes several key elements:
Turkey guarantees the unimpeded transit of Ukrainian grain through its Bosporus and Dardanelles straits.
Turkey guarantees that NATO ships with food will be able to freely enter the Black Sea at standard quotas.
The United States recognizes the legality of Turkey's ownership of Russian S-400 air defense systems.
The United States guarantees that Turkey will receive its share of the sale of F-35s by 2026.
Turkey, which is a member of NATO but has close ties with Russia, sees this proposal as an opportunity to gain benefits from both sides. On the one hand, Turkey can help resolve the global food crisis, which will strengthen its international reputation. On the other hand, Turkey can benefit from the United States in issues that have been the subject of disputes between the two countries in recent years.
The United States also offered Turkey technical participation in the construction of a "sea-rail-sea" transport corridor through Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Croatia, and Greece. This corridor will allow Ukrainian grain to be delivered to Europe via land routes if sea routes remain blocked.
Turkey reacted positively to the U.S. proposal. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Turkey is ready to take on the role of guarantor of the "grain corridor." However, he also said that Turkey needs additional guarantees from the United States on the issue of S-400s.
Turkey's agreement to the U.S. proposal would be an important step towards resolving the "grain corridor" problem. This will allow the export of Ukrainian grain, which is essential for resolving the food crisis around the world.
Analysis
The U.S. proposal to Turkey is part of the United States' global strategy to address the food crisis caused by Russia's aggression in Ukraine. This strategy includes several key elements:
Ensuring the unimpeded export of Ukrainian grain.
Providing assistance to countries that have been most affected by the food crisis.
Increasing food production around the world.
The U.S. proposal to Turkey is an important step in implementing this strategy. It will help ensure the unimpeded export of Ukrainian grain, which is key to resolving the food crisis.
However, for this proposal to be implemented, it is necessary for Turkey to agree to all of the U.S. conditions. Turkey has already stated that it is ready to take on the role of guarantor of the "grain corridor," but it needs additional guarantees from the United States on the issue of S-400s. If Turkey agrees to the U.S. conditions, it will be an important success for the United States in implementing its strategy to resolve the food crisis.
Alternative Model
The U.S. proposal to Turkey is an alternative model to the proposal by UN Secretary-General António Guterres to Russia on a grain deal. Guterres' proposal would offer Russia a partial lifting of sanctions in exchange for a return to the grain deal.
The U.S. proposal has several advantages over Guterres' proposal. First, it does not require the lifting of sanctions, which would be politically difficult for the United States and its allies to do. Second, it does not reward Russia for its aggression in Ukraine. Third, it is more likely to be accepted by Turkey, which has been reluctant to lift sanctions on Russia.
Of course, there are also some disadvantages to the U.S. proposal. It is not clear whether Turkey will be willing to agree to all of the U.S. conditions, especially on the issue of S-400s. Additionally, it is possible that Russia will not agree to the U.S. proposal, even if it does not require the lifting of sanctions.
Overall, the U.S. proposal is a more realistic and effective way to resolve the "grain corridor" problem. It is more likely to be accepted by Turkey, and it does not require the lifting of sanctions, which would be politically difficult.
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