Bosnia’s Fragile Peace Faces Its Gravest Test Since Dayton

SARAJEVO, Bosnia and Herzegovina — Thirty years after the Dayton Accords ended the brutal Bosnian War, the fragile peace it forged is unraveling. Milorad Dodik, the separatist leader of Bosnia’s Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS), has plunged the country into its deepest political crisis since 1995, defying state institutions and risking a return to conflict in the heart of the Balkans.

Dodik’s gambit began in February, when a Bosnian state court convicted him for flouting the authority of the international overseer of the Dayton Peace Agreement, a U.S.-brokered deal that divided Bosnia into two entities: the Bosniak-Croat Federation and the RS. In response, Dodik’s government in Banja Luka has sought to paralyze state operations within RS, blocking Bosnia’s police and declaring a German diplomat, Anna Luhrmann, persona non grata after her meetings with local civil society leaders. The standoff has already led to one tense confrontation between state and entity police.

Dodik claims he is restoring Dayton’s original intent—a minimalist framework granting broad autonomy to the RS. But leaders in Sarajevo, backed by the United States, Britain, and the European Union, accuse him of illegally dismantling state institutions his own party once helped build. Bosnia’s top criminal court has escalated the stakes, charging Dodik with undermining the constitutional order and seeking his arrest.

As Bosnia prepares to mark the 30th anniversary of Dayton, meant to celebrate a landmark in modern peacemaking, the agreement’s flaws are starkly exposed. Its ethnic power-sharing system, designed to balance the interests of Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats, has fueled gridlock and extremism while denying political rights to up to a quarter of the population. Under Dayton, only members of the three “constituent peoples” residing in designated areas can hold key offices, disenfranchising minorities and those in mixed regions.

Dodik and his allies in the Croat nationalist HDZ party have thrived in this system, wielding power as ethnic chieftains rather than democratic leaders. Yet the crisis he has engineered may offer a rare chance to break this cycle and fulfill Dayton’s unkept promises.

A Path Through the Crisis

The Serb opposition in RS, including the SDS party founded by the convicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic, has rejected Dodik’s brinkmanship, fearing it could ignite a conflict that would dissolve their entity. They share one goal with Sarajevo’s leaders: Dodik must be removed. His arrest and prosecution under Bosnian law, potentially with support from the EU’s peacekeeping force, EUFOR, could reset the country’s trajectory.

Such a move is fraught with risk. Dodik’s loyalists, including RS security forces, might resist, raising the specter of violence. But EUFOR’s presence could deter escalation, as even Dodik’s staunchest supporters are unlikely to challenge European troops. Failure to act, however, would cede Bosnia’s sovereignty to an armed insurgency within its borders—a far graver threat to the state’s survival.

Beyond Dodik’s removal, Bosnia needs constitutional reform to prevent future crises. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly ruled against Dayton’s discriminatory provisions, and the EU has made reform a condition for Bosnia’s membership. A blueprint exists in the 2006 April Package, a U.S.-backed reform plan that could be updated to align with court rulings and win broad support, as outlined in a recent New Lines Institute report.

A Regional Reckoning

The crisis extends beyond Bosnia’s borders. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic and Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic have backed Dodik, as has Hungary’s Viktor Orban. But Western resolve is stiffening. Germany and Austria have imposed sanctions on Dodik’s regime, isolating his regional allies. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for partners to counter Dodik’s “dangerous and destabilizing behavior,” signaling that meddling in Bosnia will carry costs.

The United States, Britain, and the EU share a strategic interest in stabilizing the Balkans, particularly as Russia, despite its rhetorical support for Dodik, lacks the leverage to challenge Western dominance in the region. A Bosnia on the path to EU and NATO integration would anchor the region and counter the influence of autocratic spoilers.

Seizing the Moment

Bosnia’s leaders are showing signs of unity. Sarajevo’s governing parties and the RS opposition have forged a tentative coalition, meeting recently with Britain’s foreign secretary to affirm their commitment to reform. Even the HDZ, long an obstacle, could be swayed with diplomatic pressure on Zagreb.

The linchpin is Dodik’s political neutralization. Western powers must back Sarajevo with the resources and political cover needed to apprehend him. The alternative—a Bosnia fractured by unchecked separatism—threatens not only its citizens but the credibility of the transatlantic alliance.

Three decades after Dayton, Bosnia stands at a crossroads. The agreement has not failed, but it is incomplete. By confronting Dodik and embracing reform, Bosnia and its allies can secure a future where peace is not just an absence of war, but a foundation for prosperity and justice.

Sergey Nevstruyev